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"Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others." John Maynard Keynes

"Money may not buy happiness, but I'd rather cry in a Jaguar than on a bus." Françoise Sagan

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On $IBKC sale to $FHN

1) A little bank stock comparison rant on the heels of $IBKC @IBERIABANK of Lafayette, LA’s sale today to $FHN

Bloomberg goes back to 1996.$IBKC looked like this:
Assets - $624MM
Earnings - $7MM
Equity - $120MM
Book Value / Share $16

— Phil Timyan (@TimyanBankAlert) November 5, 2019

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$FIS, $FISV, $GPN Thread

Terrific write up of $FIS, $FISV, $GPN pro forma for recent mergers by Tien-tsin Huang of JPM, arguably best payments analyst on the Street. Few observations:
1) Business mix favors GPN, growth least reliant on synergies. FIS most diversified, FISV most scale/defensive pic.twitter.com/BIxhNFEhK0

— CORE Dental DDS (@CoreDentalDDS) November 4, 2019

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$UA Thread

Some thoughts on Under Armour $UA $UAA

— CT Capital (@CrowdedTradeCap) November 4, 2019

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Thread about small growing companies $POLA, $EMGC, $ASPS, $BTU, $SD, $STNG, $LPG, $SHIP

I’m amazed at how many small growing profitable companies trade for less than working capital or for less than 5x FCF. Its one of the strangest pricing environments I can remember. also amazed at how most of these keep declining for the past 2 years as small cap gets liquidated https://t.co/Nxim6jgfex

— Kuppy (@hkuppy) November 3, 2019

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$V or $MA - read the whole discussion

Can’t go wrong with either as other have commented, all points already mentioned valid. Ultimately difference boils down to 1) growth vs resiliency and 2) degree of willingness to disrupt vs. preserve the status quo. Some of it is structural, some is due to strategic decisions

— CORE Dental DDS (@CoreDentalDDS) November 2, 2019

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$PIOE Thread

Very un-spooky earnings from P10 Holdings $PIOE this Halloween. https://t.co/Ixd5xKn41f

Now doing 5 cents/share in quarterly free cash flow with shares at $1.35.

— Dave Waters (@alluvialcapital) October 31, 2019

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$W Thread

$W reported earnings this morning. More of the same. Stock down 17% today and it is not surprising to see why, in light of their poor fundamental performance.

Main highlights:
--CAC moves up sharply to $93.3 (!) [1/3] pic.twitter.com/h33lDVEuVa

— Daniel McCarthy (@d_mccar) October 31, 2019

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Chartstravaganza

Chartstravaganza brings the world to life with charts … because the known universe is just too big pic.twitter.com/1CEQB6RdEG

— Plan Maestro (@PlanMaestro) November 3, 2019

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$PUMP Thread

1) We are short ProPetro Holding Corp $PUMP. Full report now available at https://t.co/lOMAMgmy60

— Culper (@CulperResearch) October 31, 2019

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Effortless Stoicism Thread

Effortless Stoicism, a thread.

— James Pierce (@jimmpierce) November 3, 2019

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"The successful investor is usually an individual who is inherently interested in business problems." Philip Arthur Fisher

"Real investors should never feel bearish because the time to buy value is when markets go down!" Irving Kahn

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Matthew Cochrane Portfolio - Added to $BABA, $GH, $PAYC, $MELI, GPN

End of Nov top holdings:
AMZN 8.2% of portfolio
MA 7.5%
SWKS 7.3%
GOOGL 7.0%
FB 6.8%
PYPL 6.4%
DIS 6.0%
MSFT 5.4%
SQ 3.7%
GPN 3.5%
HD 3.3%
PAYC 3.2%
SHOP 2.6%
VZ 2.5%
HAS 2.3%
JPM 2.2%
EA 2.2%
GLW 2.2%
BABA 2.1%
ADBE 1.9%
MDB 1.8%
MELI 1.8%
AAXN 1.5%
KMI 1.4%
MCO 1.4% https://t.co/Ei0TPwt85t

— Matthew Cochrane (@FoolMCochrane) November 30, 2019

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$SMAR Thread

"And then if you look at our Fortune 100 customers, and we have over 90% of the Fortune 100, their dollar-based net retention rate was 159%." $SMAR pic.twitter.com/pduavSUxE1

— Uncovering Value (@stockthoughts81) October 4, 2019

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Funny - WeWork Parody

THREAD: The rise and fall of WeWork. Told through a series of GIFs from The Office.

Starring Michael Scott as Adam Neumann.

— Ramp Capital (@RampCapitalLLC) October 4, 2019

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What made different working at Stripe Thread

I recently left Stripe after 4.5 formative and magical years. Some reflections on what made working at Stripe feel different than working other places:
1/Turpentine
2/Writing
3/Meticulousness
4/Principled decision-making
5/Ambition
6/Talking up
7/The API metaphor

— Brie Wolfson (@zebriez) October 4, 2019

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Tech stocks to follow

Tech stocks I follow ranked by sales grow % over past 5 years:$SHOP - 85%$TDOC - 84%$TWLO - 67%$ZEN - 53%$NEWR - 50%$GRUB - 49%$APPF - 48%$BL - 48%$FB - 48%$ZG - 46%$HUBS - 46%$TEAM - 41%$PAYC - 39%$CYBR - 49%$PANW - 37%

— Brian Feroldi (@BrianFeroldi) November 30, 2019

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Brian Stoffel Portfolio

My December #SkinInTheGame update.

Pic below shows size-weighted returns ~tripling market

Top 10

1) $AMZN (17% of port)
2) $GOOGL 10%
3) $SHOP 10%
4) $AAXN 8%
5) $MELI 8%
6) Cash 8%
7) $VEEV 6%
8) $MDB 5%
9) $FB 4%
10) $ISRG 4% pic.twitter.com/17u7OlT2FQ

— Brian Stoffel (@TMFStoffel) December 2, 2019

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Great Thread on Quality & Contrarianism

Spend more time on differences in operating model (or business model) and nuanced patterns associated with high returns (example small % of customer costs but mission critical) vs general 'moats', ie spend more time on the actual operating intricacies

— eric boroian (@eboroian) October 4, 2019

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$INTU Thread

Intuit $INTU 2019 Investor Day slides https://t.co/JXvAWt7NRN pic.twitter.com/xQ3yhCYnte

— WTCM (@WTCM3) October 3, 2019

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$COST Busienss Model Thread

1/ This is the key. The company keeps gross margins as low as possible.

We'll cover the second part of the highlighted section a little bit later. pic.twitter.com/wK1FisVeyT

— Ryan Reeves (@investing_city) October 4, 2019

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$MA and $V Thread

Serious question: why does everyone think that $MA & $V moats are so impenetrable. I fully understand why they have been good businesses in the past, but I'm not sure why that should remain the case in the future. Here are some of my concerns:

— Brian McCann (@Bootstrap68) August 9, 2019

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Thanks for reading.

"All progress takes place outside the comfort zone." Michael John Bobak

"If you are not willing to risk the usual, you will have to settle for the ordinary." Jim Rohn

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Outdoor advertising

Outdoor advertising as a channel has gained market share vs 20 years ago pic.twitter.com/jC72RlnPud

— Bluegrass Capital (@BluegrassCap) September 19, 2019

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$CNSWF \ $CSU.TO Thread

(1/10)Story on $CSU.TO’s acquisition process that I saw up close. It makes me more confident in their ability to win deals:

A friend owned ~40% of a VMS company with ~$1mm EBITDA growing ~MSD and mentioned that he wanted to sell. He potentially wanted to stay on afterwards.

— Kyler Hasson (@kylerhasson) September 19, 2019

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$SDC Thread

$SDC looks tempting, high growth high gross margin, big TAM, some competitive advantages that does take time to replicate. But corp governance redflags all over.

— mspacey (@mspacey4415) September 17, 2019

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$MNST Thread

1/n $MNST management became too conservative over the past years (thread on $MNST)

— CT Capital (@CrowdedTradeCap) September 18, 2019

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A lot of good companies in this discussion.

What's your favorite under-followed company?

My favs:$BL$EPAM$NVCR$LVGO$PAYC$HQY

— Brian Feroldi (@BrianFeroldi) September 17, 2019

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Top grossing media franchises of all time $NTDOY, $DIS

Fascinating infographic: Top grossing media franchises of all time. Pokémon, Hello Kitty, Mickey Mouse, Star Wars, etc

Observations:
- most of the money has been made in merchandise and video games
- so many Japanese brands! 5 out of the top 10
- many created in the past decade pic.twitter.com/6Munq0Upql

— Andrew Chen (@andrewchen) September 15, 2019

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$SE Thread

The "official" answer during the secondary roadshow was "to diversify the shareholder base, and improve stock liquidity".

The truth (in my view) was 1) the stock had risen 100% in three months, but nothing had changed fundamentally besides investors waking up to the story...

— Hayden Capital (@HaydenCapital) September 17, 2019

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$OSTK Thread

1/ I think it is important that I update my $OSTK thesis. I believe that the company is wildly overvalued and unlikely to succeed, but I no longer believe the "digital dividend" will be smoothly handled by Wall St. so I covered over the past few days at an avg of $22.80. cont....

— Alpha Exposure (@alpha_exposure) September 13, 2019

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$V Thread

not the worst outcome for $V Europe CEO Charlotte Hogg (left BoE in March 2017) pic.twitter.com/GE5n1SPvhY

— WTCM (@WTCM3) September 14, 2019

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Chartsravaganza

Here’s Chartstravaganza … from somewhere pic.twitter.com/veifnpNrWH

— Plan Maestro (@PlanMaestro) September 15, 2019

Selected Tweets

It's time for some tweets.

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Thanks for reading.

"Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall." Confucius

"Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated." Confucius

"Only the wisest and the stupidest of men never change." Confucius

                                                                                                                          
$PD Pager Duty Thread - How to research a public company

Pager Duty $PD Day 1: Company Overview (S-1 Prospectus; ~3 hrs)

As a first step, I want to learn about how the company makes money & why it's valuable to customers.

Don't worry about the jargon; focus on the main idea & critical questions.https://t.co/iGisi03ew9

1/8 pic.twitter.com/sWUrTnMrAb

— Simon Erickson (@TMFInnovator) September 9, 2019

                                                                                                                          
$ECL Ecolab Thread

Ecolab's virtuous customer cycle (last week's investor day) pic.twitter.com/Qxyy3ItL54

— Bluegrass Capital (@BluegrassCap) September 11, 2019

                                                                                                                          
$MSCI Thread

1) $MSCI @ Barclays Global Financial Services Conference with CFO Linda Huber

— Jerry Capital (@JerryCap) September 11, 2019

                                                                                                                          
$SQ Square Thread

Square is buying a third-party brokerage API according to @Benzinga. If it launches a rival to @RobinhoodApp would extend the scope of its Cash App ecosystem considerably and allow users to manage entire financial life from an app. Nice! Long $SQ https://t.co/UG31n3CeIL

— Matthew Cochrane (@FoolMCochrane) September 11, 2019

                                                                                                                          
$MA, $V Mastercard\Visa Thread

(1/2) Good find, more from same interview. Sounds like $MA seeing unique opportunity in EU given regulatory changes impacting payments ecosystem (PSD2, open banking). While greatest risk to $V $MA business model is always regulation, they also present interesting opportunities pic.twitter.com/SYB1sSVhEA

— CORE Dental DDS (@CoreDentalDDS) August 8, 2019

                                                                                                                          
$CTRP Ctrip.com Thread

M* on $CTRP results (cc: $3690 HK, $780 HK, $BKNG) pic.twitter.com/ZC3WdunToT

— WTCM (@WTCM3) September 10, 2019

                                                                                                                          
$MCO Moody's Thread

1) $MCO @ Barclays Global Financial Services Conference with Mark Kaye – CFO

"we don't expect more issuance in the 2H, but do expect a higher % growth given how Q4 last year emerged. Over the long-term, GDP/disintermediation remain 2 of the primary drivers of issuance activity"

— Jerry Capital (@JerryCap) September 10, 2019

                                                                                                                          
Only one life. Keep it simple

We only have one life. Keep it simple & do 👇 rite now

-Missing somebody - Call
-Wanna meet up - Invite
-Wanna be understood - Explain
-Have questions - Ask
-Don't like something - Speak up
-Like something - Share
-Want something - Ask for it
-Love someone - Tell them#life

— LearnLifeWealthTravel (@AnyBodyCanFly) September 9, 2019

                                                                                                                          
$Z, $ZG Zillow Thread

“There’s over 100 million active users on Zillow and Trulia every month but only six million people buy and sell houses every year.”

Clearly there’s room for iBuyers to remove friction from home selling process. https://t.co/7E7xfnPuws pic.twitter.com/dC9uYhVD7G

— KiD💰 (@kidkapital) September 11, 2019

                                                                                                                          
$SPGI Thread

1) $SPGI @ Barclays Global Financial Services Conference with Ewout Steenbergen CFO

"July and August combined, bond issuance excluding structured finance is up 22%." 😳

— Jerry Capital (@JerryCap) September 11, 2019

Selected Tweets

It's time for some tweets.

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"The stock market is the story of cycles and of the human behavior that is responsible for overreactions in both directions." Seth Klarman

"We are big fans of fear, and in investing it is clearly better to be scared than sorry." Seth Klarman

"We worry top-down, but we invest bottom-up." Seth Klarman

                                                                                                                          
Mission critical companies. Lots of good names.

Mission critical companies

Companies that if you shut them down today, the company that uses them couldn’t function:

Salesforce
Microsoft
Guidewire
Instructure
Blackboard
Veeva
Adobe
VMware
Nutanix
AutoDesk
Square
PayPal
Shopify
Wix
Wordpress
Stripe
AWS
Cerner
Epic

Who else

— Sean D. Emory (@_SeanDavid) September 6, 2019

                                                                                                                          
Brian Feroldi portfolio and see comments and discussion

Playing catchup with my favorite Fools:

My top holdings in descending order by position size:$MA (7%), $MELI (6%), $AMZN (5%), $BKNG, $NFLX, $FB, $SBUX, $ISRG, $V, $PAYC, $AYX, $GOOGL, $GOOG, $SQ, $ADBE......

Rest here: https://t.co/yVLupW6xL1

— Brian Feroldi (@BrianFeroldi) September 6, 2019

                                                                                                                          
$NTNX Nutanix Thread

The article for Google to buy Nutanix makes sense from the angle that Google as a company has been more open to broader ecosystems. $ntnx

We know FOUR things:

— Sean D. Emory (@_SeanDavid) September 5, 2019

                                                                                                                          
$SPLK Splunk Thread

I've now got a position in Splunk $SPLK

Leader in analysing/monitoring machine-generated big data.

Revenue projected to grow > 20%CAGR over the next 5 years; TTM P/S = 8

— Puru Saxena (@saxena_puru) September 4, 2019

                                                                                                                          
$T AT&T Thread

Elliot $T Chart Porn

— Jerry Capital (@JerryCap) September 9, 2019

                                                                                                                          
$GOOG, $GOOGL Thread

"Given how $GOOGL's product suite is closely interwoven, it’s not that much of a leap to wonder if such a guarantee could soon extend to hotels" (cc: $BKNG, $EXPE) https://t.co/RHVKjN9hSJ pic.twitter.com/XpC8j8Mld4

— WTCM (@WTCM3) September 6, 2019

                                                                                                                          
$FISV Fiserv Thread

$FISV recently filed docs in Bessemer vs Fiserv lawsuit detail a litany of product and organizational failures at Fiserv. Their core software offering is a hackers dream, full of holes that go unrepaired. It is also their own customers nightmare. Bessemer pulled the plug on $FISV pic.twitter.com/3stg38qHSj

— Empty Boxes (@emptyboxguru) September 5, 2019

                                                                                                                          
What's your single largest holding? Read comments for ideas.

It's uncomfortable and taboo for many to talk about their personal investments (unless of course they had a big winner!)

Surprisingly, people are often candid with this question:

"What's your single largest holding"?

Y'all know mine...what's yours?https://t.co/uW7e7C6OsF

— Meb Faber (@MebFaber) September 4, 2019

                                                                                                                          
Interesting Global Warming Thread

Tweetstorm about Global Warming, or alternatively Human Induced Carbon Cycle Imbalance.

It is a correctable human problem with a realistic human solution that should be pursued, discussed, and most importantly heavy funded.

Note: I’m not a scientist but rather an enthusiast

— Long Short Value (@LSValue) September 5, 2019

                                                                                                                          
Thread on Michael Bury Bloomberg article

Looks like Burry struck a little close to the heart...https://t.co/lEbmcrm0qJ

— Nate Tobik (@oddballstocks) September 5, 2019

Selected Tweets

It's time for some tweets.

If you want to share any tweets with me please send me email. 

Thanks for reading.

"The essence of business to me is great people run great companies. Mediocre people don't do a very good job." Kenneth Langone

"You can have a phenomenal technology with bad people; you're not gonna have much success. You can have mediocre technology with great people; they'll figure out a way to make a buck." Kenneth Langone

$PYPL Thread

1/ PayPal $PYPL reported its 2019 Q2 earnings results last night and is trading down about 4% today, so let's talk about it...

TL;DR: Another solid quarter, rev came in at $4.31B, +12% YOY, non-GAAP EPS $0.86, +47% YOY.

But those numbers come w/ some caveats...

(cont)

— Matthew Cochrane (@FoolMCochrane) July 25, 2019

Funny $CHWY Thread

Saw Einhorn short $CHWY and figured I'd flip through the investor presentations... and then saw this photo in their shareholder letter.

IMO you'd have to be out of your mind to short something this cute.https://t.co/rW3JdFe656 pic.twitter.com/7hzBDyKRTC

— Andrew Walker (@AndrewRangeley) July 25, 2019

$FB Thread

1) $FB Q2 2019

- The $FB FCF machine will go into overdrive as we lap the investment cycle in 2020/2021

- $FB generated $4.8 billion in FCF in the quarter, has $48.6 billion in cash, and bought back approximately $1.1 billion of shares. pic.twitter.com/b5BSpkCH9J

— Jerry Capital (@JerryCap) July 25, 2019

$ALGN Thread

(1) Thread on $ALGN @DarkSideOfTheSt @Butler60S @bluff_capital @jonathanrockoff @LibertyRPF @victoriouscake @LSValue @WallStCynic

— CT Capital (@CrowdedTradeCap) March 28, 2019

Brief history of Visa $V

Brief History of Visa https://t.co/u6zqYbT2kz

— Mine Safety (@MineSafety) May 29, 2019

Why REITs trade at a discount to PMV? - thread $SLG, $VNO

Thought this was a really interesting exchange on the $SLG earnings call.

Typical question is why REITs trade at a discount to PMV; analyst inverts and asks if discounts are hitting PMV.

Company says no; buyers prefer private real estate for illiquidity + no mark to market. pic.twitter.com/T3rINBCT8E

— Andrew Walker (@AndrewRangeley) July 19, 2019

$NFLX Thread

1) Winbrun wrote a $NFLX long thesis on VIC on June 26 2016 @ $86/share here is his/her post: https://t.co/IPxaszr56H

While the price has changed the long thesis has IMO not. I wanted to add in a thread of his comments over the last two years.

— Jerry Capital (@JerryCap) July 24, 2019

$ELS Thread

$ELS 2Q19: "we increased occupancy by 204 sites YTD, and this quarter marks our 39th consecutive quarter of occupancy growth. Customer demand to live in our communities continues to be high. The ownership transfer activity within our communities shows the strength of the market."

— WTCM (@WTCM3) July 24, 2019

$AZO Thread

#1 @iancassel Ian posted some eye popping figures about $AZO Autozone and its fantastic run since 1999. Time for a mini-AZO tweet storm! https://t.co/wgRxEIDncu

— EightTrack (@EightTrack180) July 15, 2019

Earnings quality and credit

Let's talk about earnings quality and credit. 43% of syndicated loan deals featured Ebitda addbacks in the first half of this year. That's a record proportion, according to BAML. If you strip those addbacks out, Ebitda/Interest coverage levels on loans are the lowest since 2005. pic.twitter.com/nwSb8kwZiv

— Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) July 22, 2019

Quotes from The Meaning of It All: Thoughts of a Citizen-Scientist By Richard Feynman

1) Some quotes from The Meaning of It All: Thoughts of a Citizen-Scientist By Richard Feynmanhttps://t.co/KTA36PcPzZ pic.twitter.com/WIFLcnXjaK

— Jerry Capital (@JerryCap) July 25, 2019