Selected Tweets

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If you want to share any tweets with me please send me email. 

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"If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards." Peter Lynch

"Although it’s easy to forget sometimes, a share is not a lottery ticket… it’s part-ownership of a business." Peter Lynch

$BABA Thread

1/ Let's talk about Alibaba $BABA. The numbers for such a large company are almost unbelievable. Given China's growing middle class, owning the country;s e-commerce giant makes enough sense on its own w/ these numbers and valuation. (cont) pic.twitter.com/n3EDIflVyd

— Matthew Cochrane (@FoolMCochrane) June 9, 2019

$ESTC Elastic NV

Elastic has one of the largest and longest runways for growth I have ever seen, imo clear line of sight to $1B+ revenue in short order, incredibly sticky product and multiple vectors (security, APM, logging, internal & external search, cluster Mgmt, etc) to key in on if working

— Minion Capital (@MinionCapital) June 8, 2019

Who loses money in energy stocks

In energy stocks, everyone loses money besides the bankers, lawyers, and management teams (and usually shorts)

Goldman and Evercore each get $53MM for $OXY / $APC deal$APC management takes home $300 MILLION for selling out 45% below its high in 2014. Al takes home $99MM alone! pic.twitter.com/pMuHZJ2cGk

— Mr. Skilling (Parody) (@mr_skilling) June 7, 2019

Risk Adjusted Cash Flows

A company's value is driven by one thing: risk adjusted cash flows

This depends mainly on:

-Growth
-ROIC
-Cost of capital

Outperformance requires anticipating revisions to cash flow estimates. If high returns (& growth) are maintained, there are likely to be revisions higher

— eric boroian (@eboroian) June 7, 2019

Chartavaganza by @PlanMaestro

Here’s Chartstravaganza!

No surveillance, just charts

(@gocomics) pic.twitter.com/RAXuXj7BMI

— Plan Maestro (@PlanMaestro) June 10, 2019

Thomas A. Kennedy $RTN CEO 

RTN's CEO is a lifer, fwiw, one of the things I really liked about him pic.twitter.com/aZSdKCNMO3

— Bluegrass Capital (@BluegrassCap) June 10, 2019

Four words of advice MEME

Four words of advice meme:

Stay in competence circle
Maintain margin of safety
Price is not value
The Market is bipolar
Buy bargains and wait
Be a learning machine
Use multiple diverse models
Favorable odds are essential
Be rational, avoid hubris
Avoid high transaction costs

— Tren Griffin (@trengriffin) June 11, 2019

This tweet\short story is not related to investing. It is three part story. I just found it very interesting and wanted to share with you. I hope you like it.

1st Part

ONE

My dad died. Classic start to a funny story. He was buried in a small village in Sussex. I was really close to my dad so I visited his grave a lot. I still do. [DON’T WORRY, IT GETS FUNNIER.]

— sixthformpoet (@sixthformpoet) June 9, 2019

2nd Part

TWO

We had two children and last year they said they wanted to go to Disneyland. We saved up and booked it but rather than say sure you want to go to Disneyland let’s go to Disneyland, we decided to make them earn it. I told them they needed to raise £3,000.

— sixthformpoet (@sixthformpoet) June 9, 2019

3rd Part

THREE

I lived next door to a couple called Lucy and Tim. They were both lovely but very different to one another. He was a gregarious GET IN HERE AND DRINK CHAMPAGNE WITH ME type, she was far more reserved.

— sixthformpoet (@sixthformpoet) June 9, 2019

Recommended Links

Thanks for reading

"An asset is worth what someone is willing to pay for it; and the value of an asset is the cash it will generate over its life." John Kay

"Value investing was once the purchase of tangible assets at levels below their market value. Value investing today is buying sustainable competitive advantages at a good price." John Kay - Long & the Short of It: A Guide to Finance & Investment for Normally Intelligent People Who Aren't in the Industry

Deep dive into Financial Services: Real Estate Services by Stephens
Separate research reports to all companies in the report.
eXp World Holdings $EXPI
Zillow, Inc. $ZG
Realogy Holdings Corp. $RLGY
Redfin Corp. $RDFN
RE/MAX Holdings Inc. $RMAX

Our remedy for low interest rates $BAM - by Barry Schwartz (Baskin Wealth Management)

How a janitor at Frito-Lay invented Flamin’ Hot Cheetos - by Zachary Crockett (the HUSTLE)

Mary Meeker’s most important trends on the internet - by Rani Molla (Vox)

The Network Effects Manual: 13 Different Network Effects (and counting) - by James Currier (NFX)

Thought Provoking Better Schools Won’t Fix America - by Nick Hanauer (The Atlantic)

Recommended Links

Thanks for reading

"The greater the passive income you can build, the freer you will become." Todd M. Fleming 

"The most popular investing products are the worst ones for investors." Robert Rolih

Michael Kors & Versace: Stitched at the Seam $CPRI - by Jane Wang and Bohan Jiang (Ivey Business Review)
On this note I highly recommend the book The Luxury Strategy: Break the Rules of Marketing to Build Luxury Brands - by Jean-Noël Kapferer

What Bill Miller says is his main advantage and why Amazon will double in 3 years - by Holden Wilen (Baltimore Business Journal)

The Secret to a Low Efficiency Ratio - by Jack Milligan (Bank Director)

Buying Companies with Great Products – Snap-On ($SNA) – Part I - (Old School Value)

Buying Companies with Great Products – Cummins ($CMI) – Part II

The Art of the Roll-up - Small Cap Discoveries

Why Bad Things Happen to Good Decisions - by Shane Parrish (Farnam Street)
Pre-Order his book The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts

Selected Tweets

It's time for some tweets.

If you want to share any tweets with me please send me email. 

Thanks for reading.

"Speculation is an effort, probably unsuccessful, to turn a little money into a lot. Investment is an effort, which should be successful, to prevent a lot of money from becoming a little." Fred Schwed Jr. - Where Are the Customers' Yachts?: Or a Good Hard Look at Wall Street 

"Investing money is the process of committing resources in a strategic way to accomplish a specific objective." Alan Gotthardt - The Eternity Portfolio 

$TIGO Thread

Some updated thoughts on $TIGO, a stock that has gone nowhere since I first discussed it about a year ago (thread)...

— Fully Synergized (@FullySynergized) June 7, 2019

Interesting Discussion - $DOCU

$DOCU very interesting buy today. Officially launched a new vertical in an adjacent market. Base business still very strong even with slightly lower guidance.

I think today is one of the days people got earnings response wrong. pic.twitter.com/J4K9U2SOrN

— Long Short Value (@LSValue) June 7, 2019

$VRSK Thread

fin svcs = arguably underappreciated piece of the $VRSK machine pic.twitter.com/nqn8VAeeP7

— WTCM (@WTCM3) June 7, 2019

Good Chart - Net Dollar Retention

Net Dollar Retention Rates.

Note: “Today” is from Q3 of 2018.

Link: https://t.co/1lxWzyzFWB pic.twitter.com/7385LAgBbk

— Long Short Value (@LSValue) June 7, 2019

Stadia $GOOG\$GOOGL

1/ Jokes aside, the Stadia launch announcement is stunning, confounding and quintessentially tech-trying-media. It is focused on technology solutions (no hardware! access anywhere!) producing an experience, rather than the end-experience people want: to play games

— Matthew Ball (@ballmatthew) June 7, 2019

Selected Tweets

It's time for some tweets.

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Thanks for reading.

"Money is always eager and ready to work for anyone who is ready to employ it." Idowu Koyenikan

"It's nice to have a lot of money, but you know, you don't want to keep it around forever. I prefer buying things. Otherwise, it's a little like saving sex for your old age." Warren Buffett

$CPRI Capri Holdings Thread

CAPRI HOLDINGS INVESTOR DAY
(LIVE UPDATES HERE)

1:30PM EST

**Disclosure: We are shareholders of Capri. (~$10.1M)

👇🏼

— Sean D. Emory (@_SeanDavid) June 4, 2019

$CPRI Capri Holdings Earnings

Capri Earnings:

Long Term Plan intact
1. Grow Versace & Jimmy Choo
2. Keep Kors Stable

36M customer files, +27% y/y
45M IG followers. +9% y/y
$1.3B sales, 13.9%y/y, 16.5% ex. FX

Versace: High Single Digit Comps
Jimmy Choo: 29% y/y, mid-single-digit comp pic.twitter.com/CygNXvbnRT

— Sean D. Emory (@_SeanDavid) May 29, 2019

$FMX Thread

FEMSA / $FMX: largest franchise bottler of $KO products in the world by
volume; holder of 2nd-largest equity stake in $HEIA NA; operates 18k OXXO c-stores across Mexico, Colombia, Chile and Peru https://t.co/DwkS9PtbKW pic.twitter.com/Nk6rrW10sV

— WTCM (@WTCM3) April 2, 2019

$MSCI Thread

1) $MSCI Guidance and Long-Term Targets Reaffirmed at the William Blair Growth Stock Conference

"Adjusted EBITDA growth rates in the mid-teens over the long-term, and adjusted EBITDA margin in the mid- to high 50s." pic.twitter.com/7jj95kRKgU

— Jerry Capital (@JerryCap) June 6, 2019

$BYND Beyond Meat Thread

1/ In my last thread (below), I talked about the health drawbacks of Beyond Meat ($BYND) and Impossible foods.

Now let’s talk about the health of their businesses. https://t.co/cCPotvWERc

— Justin Mares (@jwmares) May 29, 2019

$EB Evenbrite Flywheel Thread

Eventbrite $EB 'flywheel' https://t.co/XeJCrj9pBH pic.twitter.com/FYia4E1kRT

— WTCM (@WTCM3) June 4, 2019

Medical Device Industry Thread

If you've ever wanted to understand the medical device industry, read this: https://t.co/9479psuPzN

— Ryan Reeves (@investing_city) June 4, 2019

Selected Tweets

It's time for some tweets.

If you want to share any tweets with me please send me email. 

Thanks for reading.

"Your net worth to the world is usually determined by what remains after your bad habits are subtracted from your good ones." Benjamin Franklin

 "The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator. This means that he should be able to justify every purchase he makes and each price he pays by impersonal, objective reasoning that satisfies him that he is getting more than his money’s worth for his purchase." Benjamin Graham

$PAC Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV

PAC (Mexican airports) non aeronautical revenue in Q1 pic.twitter.com/fGl5NaoJaw

— Bluegrass Capital (@BluegrassCap) May 31, 2019

Adam Robinson

KNOW THIS!

The BEST in ANY field is NEVER the most talented—

Want to know why that MUST be the case?

They all recognized—early—NOT being the most talented,

they HAD to play a DIFFERENT game,

one in which even their very DISADVANTAGES became strengths!

Play YOUR best game!

— Adam Robinson (@IAmAdamRobinson) June 1, 2019

Thoughts on Slack S-1

1) Slack S-1: growth is decelerating, annual market efficiency is improving, quarterly marketing efficiency is deteriorating and annual net dollar retention is slowing.

Changes to metrics are likely due to Teams. Overall, metrics and growth are still really impressive.

— Gavin Baker (@GavinSBaker) June 2, 2019

Anti-Trust Thread. Read the discussions it gets very interesting

If the DOJ going after $GOOG is (1) real and (2) indicative of anti trust being back and DC going after SF, SAAS is fucked. These names are all trading on bets that they get to some scale where they’re intrenched and then get bought out.

— MUGATU (@SuperMugatu) June 1, 2019

Boyd Group Stellar Returns $BFGIF

$BYD.UN the largest operator of (non-franchised) collision repair shops in North America

90% of revenues paid by insurance companies pic.twitter.com/0w0R4ormVT

— Jerry Capital (@JerryCap) May 30, 2019

Microsoft Excel Origins

1/ The origin of what would be called Microsoft Excel [original code name Plan 2.0 and then Odyssey] can be traced to a retreat at the Red Lion hotel in Bellevue in October of 1983. Bill Gates, Jeff Raikes, Doug Klunder, Jabe Blumenthal, Pete Higgins and others were there.

— Tren Griffin (@trengriffin) December 29, 2018

Recommended Links

"Overconfidence is a very serious problem. If you don’t think it affects you, that’s probably because you’re overconfident." Carl Richards

"By the time any view becomes a majority view, it is no longer the best view: somebody will already have advanced beyond the point which the majority have reached." Friedrich Hayek

A legenday investor John Neff died last week. Here is 2002 Barrons cover article: John Neff's History Class. He also published really good book called John Neff On Investing.

Interview with David Samra - He is lead portfolio manager of the Artisan International Value Fund $APAM. He talks about $ABB, $HCMLF, $NVS, $UBS, $CFRUY.

Why Subscription Revenue Is Lifting the Enterprise Software Industry—And Investor Expectations.

While on the subject of technology I highly recommend the book Platform Revolution: How Networked Markets Are Transforming the Economy and How to Make Them Work for You by Geoffrey G. Parker

China, Leverage, and Values - by Ben Thompson

Claude Shannon: How a Genius Solves Problems

Merger Masters - The Art of Risk Arb

Harvard Business Review Disruption Starts with Unhappy Customers, Not Technology

Selected Tweets

It's time for some tweets.

If you want to share any tweets with me please send me email. 

This past week John Neff past away so i'll share some nuggets from him. I hope you don't mind it.

Thanks for reading.

 "You can line up more experts than you can shake a stick at, but none can predict with certainty what investors really want to know: How will the market do tomorrow, or next week, or next year?" John Neff

"Whether you trade one stock a year or a stock a day (I don’t recommend the latter)…" John Neff

"Hang around long enough… and you will begin to recognize the market’s personality. It is irrational and unsentimental. It is cantankerous and hostile. At times, it is forgiving and congenial." John Neff

"Obsession with broad diversification is the sure road to mediocrity. Most people who own more than two mutual funds are over-diversified." John Neff 

"The investment process must begin somewhere. In my case, all ladders start in the dusty rag and bone shop of the mart, where the supply of cheap stocks replenishes itself daily." John Neff 

"Individual investors enjoy a key advantage over professionals in one critical respect. You can pick and choose stocks and bide your time unflustered by the fierce and often corrosive quarterly performance sweepstakes, especially in hostile market climates." John Neff

"Low p/e stocks still offer opportunities to investors who dare to embrace them. But a crowd mentality still drives investing behavior." John Neff

Thread on $EEI

So thankfully $EEI filed their financials after close. Going through now, mixed bag with generally positive forward looking statements and disappointing results. I can see why this took so long given the declassification of LatAm subsidiaries. Some key points below:

— ArtkoCapital (@ArtkoCapital) May 31, 2019

Matthew Cochrane Holdings

End of May top holdings (will start doing this every month): AMZN (9.4% of portfolio), MA (7.4%), PYPL (7.4%), FB (6.8%), GOOGL (6.8%), DIS (6.0%), SWKS (5.7%), MSFT (5.0%), SQ (3.5%), HD (3.2%), SHOP (2.9%), GPN (2.7%), PAYC (2.6%), VZ (2.5%), MDB (2.4%), GLW (2.4%), HAS (2.4%)

— Matthew Cochrane (@FoolMCochrane) May 31, 2019

Matthew Cochrane Why $MA over $V

Why $MA over $V? Great question! https://t.co/MnO5ratdGy

— Matthew Cochrane (@FoolMCochrane) May 31, 2019

$OKTA Thread

$OKTA on the evolution of workforce + customer identity mgmt https://t.co/uXQ7a39lQO pic.twitter.com/LFuFZ4bCM7

— WTCM (@WTCM3) May 31, 2019

$INS with two short Reports here and here.

Imagine a company where:

- Revenues grew 70%+ last quarter
- Gross margins were over 60%
- Sales and market expenses were less than 1% of sales
- Founder led and owns more than 20% of shares
- Trading for a forward PE of 20

Oh wait...it exists.

What company is it?

— Ryan Reeves (@investing_city) May 30, 2019

Cheat Sheets

my dad used to write for a financial research company. these are some cheat sheets he made for himself pic.twitter.com/raG85GOCG2

— nick barr (@nsbarr) May 30, 2019

Selected Tweets

It's time for some tweets.

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Thanks for reading. 

 “The snake which cannot cast its skin has to die. As well the minds which are prevented from changing their opinions; they cease to be mind.” - Friedrich Nietzsche

"In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable." - Robert Arnott

Forecast on future ad spend. Good article with lots of interesting tables and charts. Highly recommend.

Forecasts on Ad Spend.

Ad market for companies that happen to be in China was quite soft in 1Q19 but let's not forget longer-term trends. Even if those forecasts turn out to be inprecise, I believe they're more than only directionally accurate.

source: https://t.co/wrnAtUPqlN pic.twitter.com/ml0mRx9DNq

— sebidscap (@sebidscap) May 30, 2019

$MCFT Thread. I like the company. However the management has not have enough skin in the company

I know nobody wants to touch any cyclicals right now, but thats why you can buy $MCFT for 7x fwd earnings. Their main product is a ski/wake boat that is benefiting from secular tailwinds and is oligopolistic in nature (only 3-4 brands that matter in the segment).

— 1 Main Capital (@1MainCapital) May 30, 2019

$SWKS - play on 5G Thread

1/ This isn't my usual beat on payments or fintech, but would like to talk about Skyworks Solutions $SWKS, the analog #semiconductor maker that "is empowering the wireless networking revolution." Just thinking out loud, looking for feedback. #5G #IoT #valueinvesting (cont)

— Matthew Cochrane (@FoolMCochrane) May 30, 2019

Jason Zweig book recommendation

(1/3)

The best book I've read in the past five years is Vasily Grossman's epic novel about the siege of Stalingrad, "Life and Fate." https://t.co/WZINec9dxx

— Jason Zweig (@jasonzweigwsj) May 30, 2019

$HEI Thread

Heico CEO: "In the 29 years that we have been running HEICO, I have never seen a business climate as positive and strong as this one. And I would say as a general comment, is across the board and continue very strong."

— Liberty (@LibertyRPF) May 29, 2019

Good article. Also read the comments on this tweet

🍲 Fresh from the kitchen…

Our Systematic Value Philosophy

- 3 years ago, we asked ourselves, “how would we build a value equity strategy?”

- So we did it.

- Thoughts on metrics, cross-market v cross-industry, sector neutrality, and rebalancing.https://t.co/2RP3EEFbQt pic.twitter.com/2u2AGNr6pz

— Corey Hoffstein (@choffstein) May 28, 2019

Selected Tweets

It's time for some tweets.

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“We should never underestimate human stupidity” - Yuval Noah Harari

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

$RDFN Thread

I've previously discussed the challenges that I believe $RDFN faces as it scales Redfin Direct but I recently added a small position in the company.

My reasoning to follow. https://t.co/NtKfGb2goG

— KiD💰 (@kidkapital) May 29, 2019

$ZM Thread

Has anyone seen a total customer and/or user count for Zoom $ZM?

Zoom reports it has 50,800 customers w/ more than 10 employees, 344 customers spending $100k+, and that its total monthly meeting minutes now exceeds 5 billion.

But I have yet to see a reported total user count.

— Simon Erickson (@TMFInnovator) May 28, 2019

$ITW Thread

"The $ITW Business Model is our competitive advantage" pic.twitter.com/J35tFRyk4U

— WTCM (@WTCM3) April 26, 2019

Charlie Munger posts on 25IQ.com

There are 32 posts on Charlie Munger at 25IQ including (~10% of 300):

Distilled to less than 500 Words https://t.co/HK8GkgPBeY

The Value Investing System https://t.co/QBEcbe0YOU

Capital Allocation https://t.co/G2aADwDzTR

Making Rational Decisions https://t.co/2xaycMXRoY

— Tren Griffin (@trengriffin) May 27, 2019

Bill Miller favorite books.

Monk on Wittgenstein and on Russell, but those are obvious https://t.co/B0QeSLiFgh

— Bill Miller (@B3_MillerValue) May 26, 2019

Look at the comments inside to see what other people read.

What’s the last book that you read for at least the second time? https://t.co/1TmYRmX6m6

— Patrick OShaughnessy (@patrick_oshag) May 27, 2019

Evolution of scientific research.

Ual! Evolution of scientific research over the years: pic.twitter.com/lAbrP1KjpY

— Jule Santos (@julesantosER) May 27, 2019