Selected Tweets

It's time for some tweets.

If you want to share any tweets with me please send me email or dm on twitter.

Thanks for reading.

"When the facts change, I change my mind."  John Maynard Keynes

"The biggest problem is not to let people accept new ideas, but to let them forget the old ones." John Maynard Keynes

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$WLL Thread

Very proud to attach an Energy FinTwit research collaboration on Whiting Petroleum, $WLL@WillRayValentin@oil_gonifhttps://t.co/snCY4LXUub

1/

— O&G OG (@EnergyCredit1) October 31, 2019

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$MA Thread

1/ Let's talk about one of my favorite companies, Mastercard $MA. It reported earnings yesterday and was up 1% today, but it's up approximately a gazillion percent over the past decade, so seems like a good time to review... pic.twitter.com/eUu0VpCjc7

— Matthew Cochrane (@FoolMCochrane) October 31, 2019

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$QUAD Thread

$QUAD - The reason they are "selling" the $200 mm segment is that it lost -$15 mm of EBITDA in H1-19... by moving this loss to discontinued operations, it buys them room on their covenants. That's how bad the situation is, they have to manufacture EBITDA to maintain compliance...

— ValuewithaCatalyst (@ValuewaCatalyst) October 30, 2019

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$FB Workplace Thread

2/Workplace is similar to @Slack or @MicrosoftTeams: collaboration software for work. It started as an internal tool at Facebook and then grew to > 40k customers and today > 3 million paid users (seats): pic.twitter.com/hJzlW1urYe

— Marcelo P. Lima (@MarceloPLima) October 29, 2019

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$ROKU Thread

Still a lot of ppl don't get $roku. Not b/c they missed the boat but truly don't understand. Let me explain.
-People make comments Roku'd be obsolete w/ everyone has a smart TV. Smart TVs DO have an OS. Roku OS is the most popular OS followed by $amzn Fire TV (1/7)

— DYOptions (@data168) October 30, 2019

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$CVNA Thread

1/

Pull up a chair. $CVNA is an opaque subprime origination machine attached to a management compensation scheme. When investors let the fox guard the hen house, they shouldn't be surprised at the result. It escapes me completely how institutions will put https://t.co/8V1101qybO

— Investor Gator 🐊 (@GatorInvestor) October 29, 2019

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$SPGI Thread

$SPGI (1/2) S & P Global beats on eps, beats on rev and guides FY eps above consensus. pic.twitter.com/QU36WWuBVJ

— North Bluff Capital (@bluff_capital) October 29, 2019

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$GRUB Thread

$GRUB 4Q revenue guidance $315-335MM, vs $387MM consensus. EBITDA: $15-25MM vs $79MM consensus. Ouch.

— Diogenes (@WallStCynic) October 28, 2019

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2 Thread on $SPOT

$SPOT Q3 Earnings, very strong results. 31% MAUs, 30% subs and 29% Rev. FCF and Op Inc positive. Raises guidance. https://t.co/kI7hDBDGmU pic.twitter.com/KCOfPiNygz

— FranciscoAmador (@chesko182) October 28, 2019

Couple of $SPOT earnings notes.

First of all, kudos for getting right to questions. Nothing is stupider than reading something aloud that could be sent as text in advance.

Headline numbers:

Subs +30%
Rev +28%
Gross margin +20 bps pic.twitter.com/6NIoRszuZ8

— Evan Tindell (@evantindell) October 29, 2019

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Chartstravaganza

Another edition of Chartstravaganza … tracking change with charts pic.twitter.com/6Iq3gx3JQI

— Plan Maestro (@PlanMaestro) October 27, 2019

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Interesting picks below 10x in 10 years - some names include $PINS, $SQ, $BZUN

What is the lowest risk stock that you believe will 10x over the next 10 years?

I'll go first:

Pinterest - $PINS

— Brian Feroldi (@BrianFeroldi) October 27, 2019

Selected Tweets

It's time for some tweets.

If you want to share any tweets with me please send me email or dm on twitter.

Thanks for reading.

"A company is only as good as the people it keeps." Mary Kay Ash

"Business is a combination of war and sport." Andre Maurois

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$INTU Podcast\Thread

$INTU

The AMM Dividend Growth Podcast Episode 4 – How Intuit is Building a Moat Around QuickBooks Onlinehttps://t.co/mIQkPYsnXt

— Jerry Capital (@JerryCap) October 16, 2019

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$FB Thread

After holding for more than 7 years, I'm seriously considering selling all of my shares of Facebook $FB.

IMHO, the company's uncertainties and risks are both elevating to levels that I'm not comfortable with.

Someone tell me that I'm wrong, paranoid, or crazy.

— Simon Erickson (@TMFInnovator) October 15, 2019

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$GPN Thread

I can see how this can be a concern. Been digging into this a bit and here’s my take: probably some truth in the claim but likely mixing 🍎 with 🍊 so missing the bigger picture, which by the way I did not realize until digging deeper today at @BillBrewsterSCG’s suggestion. Thx

— CORE Dental DDS (@CoreDentalDDS) October 12, 2019

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$PATK Thread

1./ Here is a cool story about the chart below of Patrick Industries $PATK pic.twitter.com/m4ZDaJYmPr

— Ian Cassel (@iancassel) October 15, 2019

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$SPOT Thread

Thread on $SPOT margins

Bulls believe that $SPOT GM can eventually get to 35% driven by increasing bargaining power vs. labels as it continues to scale, contribute increasing portion of industry revenue and entrench users via discovery. I still think that is a tricky thesis

— compound (@compound100x) October 15, 2019

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$ROKU Thread

Some of the reasons why I've invested in $ROKU

1) Market share - pic.twitter.com/L2FnGS7LWW

— Puru Saxena (@saxena_puru) October 15, 2019

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$WDAY Convesration

the dynamic in Saas is that it costs a lot to bring new subscribers (let's say $1.5 in marketing for $1 of revenue), less to upsell an existing one (let's say $0.9 for $1) and much less for renewal ($0.1 for $1)

— Emilgold (@emilio_gold) October 13, 2019

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$WEN Thread

WEN = 1st restaurant franchisor Ive seen say publicly they will roll out dark kitchens on top of their existing footprint (from their investor day) pic.twitter.com/C57j1nRaHk

— Bluegrass Capital (@BluegrassCap) October 14, 2019

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Chartstravaganza

Here’s Chartstravaganza … not so passive entertainment pic.twitter.com/IUwLR06FFT

— Plan Maestro (@PlanMaestro) October 13, 2019

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Some Charts from KeyBanc Capital Markets StackOverflow

KBCM's StackOverflow developer tracker pic.twitter.com/aD3DsoSzSU

— Value_Biased (@ValueBiased) October 14, 2019

Selected Tweets

It's time for some tweets.

If you want to share any tweets with me please send me email or dm on twitter.

Thanks for reading.

"Any fool can criticize, condemn, and complain -- and most fools do." Dale Carnegie

"One of the most tragic things I know about human nature is that all of us tend to put off living. We are all dreaming of some magical rose garden over the horizon instead of enjoying the roses that are blooming outside our windows today." Dale Carnegie

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e-commerce Google interest $SHOP, $WIX, $ADBE

Shopify is the only major ecommerce platform that has consistently grown its Google interest worldwide over the past five years. $SHOP $WIX $ADBE pic.twitter.com/tQgj1QQHBX

— Travis Wiedower (@TravisWiedower) September 17, 2019

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$SFIX Thread

I guess most are kind of familiar with the company. for those who aren't, here is an excellent thread on the company from @svafierhttps://t.co/1Gi8CKAyqr

— Emilgold (@emilio_gold) September 25, 2019

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$PTON Thread

One more $PTON: interesting a company that's been around for ~7 years is projecting CLTV of ~7.5 years

Totally possible that's right! But seems kind of aggressive as most of their subs are new; will be interesting how churn looks in ~3 years as bike depreciates / sub base ages pic.twitter.com/Pb91sbKHzv

— Andrew Walker (@AndrewRangeley) September 25, 2019

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$NTDOY Thread

I've got mad respect for sell side analysts that are also active on Twitter. @agoyal000 is a great analyst at Jefferies and covers Nintendo. I'll highlight some of his research. $NTDOY

— Hardcore Value (@HardcoreValue) September 25, 2019

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$SDC Thread

Thread on SmileDirectClub $SDC. This guy is biased, although this does not necessarily mean he is wrong https://t.co/yAPlholj4W

— CT Capital (@CrowdedTradeCap) September 20, 2019

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Visualization of exchange consolidation $CME, $NDAQ, $ICE, $LNSTY, $EUXTF

great visualization of exchange consolidation over time (cc: $CME, $NDAQ, $ICE, $LSE LN, $ENX FP, $388 HK, $DB1 GY) https://t.co/7OjdotOt0p pic.twitter.com/h9e0zuu3VN

— WTCM (@WTCM3) September 22, 2019

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Skills > Knowledge … thread

Skills > Knowledge … threadhttps://t.co/B4cgropBR0

— Plan Maestro (@PlanMaestro) September 22, 2019

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How a credit card works

Confession: I'm a nerd. Spent the whole morning learning about how a credit card works. Surprisingly, it's incredibly complicated. Here's what I've learned.

— Ryan Reeves (@investing_city) November 3, 2018

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$NFLX and $SPOT Thread

If I ran $NFLX, I'd partner up with $SPOT.
Make a discounted bundle for both.
Would help them deter off Amazon & Apple. Doesn't attack respective turfs.

Soft-Merging subscriber bases will increase stickiness of both and reaccelerate sub growth. Long-term win.

cc: @reedhastings

— sebidscap (@sebidscap) September 21, 2019

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Chartstravaganza

Here’s Chartstravaganza … it won’t be good pic.twitter.com/C7ddwhqZpz

— Plan Maestro (@PlanMaestro) September 22, 2019

Selected Tweets

It's time for some tweets.

If you want to share any tweets with me please send me email. 

Thanks for reading.

"The purpose of an organization is to enable ordinary humans beings to do extraordinary things." Peter Drucker

"Change is the norm; unless an organization sees that its task is to lead change, that organization will not survive." Peter Drucker

"The entrepreneur always searches for change, responds to it, and exploits it as an opportunity." Peter Drucker

$YEXT Thread

Just took a position in $YEXT, who could be a huge winner as AI assistants gain adoption.

I'm now modeling out its growth, since DKM is so new & not yet well-defined. Will post my results & full thesis soon.

A huge thanks to @EvanKnowles_ who first brought YEXT to my attention.

— Simon Erickson (@TMFInnovator) July 23, 2019

$BKI Thread

Thread on Black Knight Inc. $BKI.

BK is a mortgage software provider to banks and other institutions to help them manage mortgage servicing and origination processes. Costs of servicing and originating mortgages for banks have increased significantly in recent years

— Quercus Ilex Investor (@QuercusCap) July 21, 2019

$APTL Discussion

Alaska Power and Telephone $APTL produced $4.70 in FCF in the first half of 2019 against a share price of $60. Boring stock, but value for the patient. https://t.co/qowXpLLu31

— Dave Waters (@alluvialcapital) July 19, 2019

$POOL Thread

$POOL saw strong discretionary demand in 2Q19; base business +4% y/y despite poor May weather in TX, CA and AZ (cc: $PNR, $FDR) https://t.co/XmknO5tyLy pic.twitter.com/Mgsvuj9b3f

— WTCM (@WTCM3) July 19, 2019

$SPOT Thread

Compared to Netflix, Spotify has several advantages with content creators that could make its path to participating in content economics even easier...

— Bluegrass Capital (@BluegrassCap) July 20, 2019

$MSFT Thread and discussion

Satya subtweeting AWS: "We are building Azure as the world's computer, addressing customers' real-world operational sovereignty and regulatory needs. We have 54 data center regions, more than any other cloud provider, and we were the first in Middle East and in Africa." $MSFT

— Liberty (@LibertyRPF) July 19, 2019

e-commerce battle $AMZN, $WMT

great longer read into the $WMT / $AMZN e-comm battle: "Multiple sources tell Recode that [Walmart] is projecting losses of more than $1B for its US e-commerce division this year, on revenue of between $21B and $22B" https://t.co/KQMQq1okI4

— WTCM (@WTCM3) July 5, 2019

$TDG Thread

(1/n) $TDG selling part of the $ESL biz that it recently acquired:https://t.co/S1ipDFPfll$TDG acquired $ESL at ~2x sales and is now divesting sales of $363mm for $920mm, or ~2.5x sales. I had assumed they'd sell $500mm in sales for $1bb. pic.twitter.com/IAGetVN96m

— Kyler Hasson (@kylerhasson) July 22, 2019

$ETFC Thread

$ETFC CEO opening 2Q call: "With respect to capital return, we announced a new $1.5B auth and began tactically shifting our balance sheet to free capital, which allows us to opportunistically repo add'l stock at an extremely compelling value"; reaffirms >$7 EPS by '23 target

— WTCM (@WTCM3) July 22, 2019

$TYL vs $SPX

$TYL underperforming the $SPX over the last three years (-14% relative performance).

Working off a little bit of its recent mutliple (7.6x EV/sales). pic.twitter.com/5dAYYXeUUb

— Jerry Capital (@JerryCap) July 23, 2019

$UBS Thread

$UBS CEO this morning on wealth mgmt biz: "we had record profits in the Americas and global invested assets reached an all time high of $2.5 trillion"

— WTCM (@WTCM3) July 23, 2019