Selected Tweets

It's time for some tweets.

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"An accurate estimate of intrinsic value is the essential foundation for steady, unemotional and potentially profitable investing." Howard Marks

"First-level thinking says, ‘I think the company’s earnings will fall; sell.’ Second-level thinking says, ‘I think the company’s earnings will fall less than people expect, and the pleasant surprise will lift the stock; buy.’" Howard Marks

"First-level things says, ‘It’s a good company; lets buy the stock.’ Second-level thinking says ‘It’s a good company, but everyone thinks it’s a great company, and it’s not. So the stock’s overrated and overpriced, let’s sell." Howard Marks

"First-level thinking says, ‘The outlook calls for low growth and rising inflation. Let’s dump our stocks.’ Second-level thinking says, ‘The outlook stinks, but everyone else is selling in a panic. Buy!’" Howard Marks

$BAM\$GWR deal - thread

(1/n) A some thoughts on the $BAM / $GWR deal.

I said a few weeks ago that it was difficult for me to find a mid-teens IRR here and that I hoped this would be syndicated out to institutions looking for core returns.

— Kyler Hasson (@kylerhasson) July 1, 2019

Six Ideas - $APT, $CYAN, $NWL, $PCTI, $RAIL, $TRIB

The six stocks currently held in my '25 at 4% each' portfolio. (Down a combined 7.0% since inception). pic.twitter.com/XZTKfhHzvP

— microcaptrader (@VanderbiltStCap) July 3, 2019

On improvement

This summer, it'll be nearly 20 years since I started playing guitar. Mostly Jazz & Blues, but also Folk & Bluegrass.

Of all the things I've learned, two really stand out as the biggest drivers of improvement. They both have interesting applications to investing...

— eric boroian (@eboroian) July 5, 2019

$AER Aercap Holdings Thread

Interesting comparison$AER (first quote): we are actively selling planes at a premium to book so we can buy back our stock at a discount to book$AYR (second quote): we'll do some repurchases, but only if we have to. We don't like it. We don't think it helps in the long run. pic.twitter.com/j4agaqaSEQ

— Andrew Walker (@AndrewRangeley) June 11, 2019

1907 Liquidity Crunch - $JPM

October 1907, the last liquidity crunch before creation of the Fed

Instead of SUVs on Maiden Lane it was carriages lined up at JP Morgan's place

"Tell the people of New York to keep their heads and keep their money in the banks, and matters will again become normal" pic.twitter.com/bBIokDBbQL

— NeckarCap (@NeckarValue) July 7, 2019

$CHTR Thread

(1/n) Been thinking about $CHTR (disc: long) a bit recently. Seems expensive as it has run up a lot, but still looks like high-teens IRRs over 5+ years with reasonable assumptions.

In these situations with lots of leverage, I like to use Tom Murphy's hurdle of 10% IRR unlevered.

— Kyler Hasson (@kylerhasson) July 3, 2019

Vacation reading

Every year as summer vacation season starts I get asked what books I recommend. Some of the best books require a small effort to assemble. Not everyone is willing to do this work. Example: start with the first @bgurley post from 1996 and read them all: https://t.co/tyCngkGbxq

— Tren Griffin (@trengriffin) July 6, 2019

Chartstravaganza

Here’s Chartstravaganza … charts for every occasion (@ft) pic.twitter.com/g1X5jNqExO

— Plan Maestro (@PlanMaestro) July 7, 2019

Insights from @bradsling of NZS Cap

1/25 Fantastic insights below from @bradsling of NZS Cap re: investing in innovative bizes & non-zero-sum outcomes. Tagging some who may appreciate alongside their many followers: @BluegrassCap @MinionCapital @BrentBeshore @LibertyRPF @verdadcap @bgurley https://t.co/8EA5hA5rt9

— CapGains (@iamschoeb) July 7, 2019

How to be a better writer

How to be a better writer:

-write about what fascinates you
-make one point per sentence
-use stories to make your point
-cut extra words like “really” and “very”
-read the whole thing out loud
-post publicly (you’ll try harder when you know others will read it)

What else?

— James Clear (@JamesClear) July 5, 2019